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Worked Example Gallery

These examples are end-to-end demonstrations of the 8-phase workflow: each turns a plain-language idea into a calibrated mathematical model, includes rejected-lens rationales for why other perspectives were set aside, and closes with explicit falsification criteria. Rows are grouped by the primary lens demonstrated, following the fifteen lenses; most examples also compose secondary lenses.

Deterministic

Example Primary lens(es) Domain One-line takeaway
Epidemic Spread Deterministic (+ stochastic check) Epidemiology An SIR model exposes an R₀ threshold: whether an outbreak explodes or dies out is decided before any stochastic detail matters.
App Adoption Growth Deterministic (Bass diffusion archetype-first) Product growth A single well-chosen archetype (Bass ODE), calibrated on real signups and gated by BIC, answers ceiling and stall-timing questions.

Stochastic

Example Primary lens(es) Domain One-line takeaway
Insurance Ruin Risk Stochastic Insurance / risk For rare-event solvency questions, deterministic averages are useless , ruin probability is a tail property that only a stochastic model can price.
Retail Inventory Under Uncertain Demand Stochastic (+ optimization, control) Retail operations Demand randomness converts a restocking question into an (s,Q) policy built from newsvendor logic plus safety stock.

Optimization

Example Primary lens(es) Domain One-line takeaway
Coffee Shop Staffing Optimization (+ queueing) Service operations An Erlang-C wait cliff embedded in an ILP shows lenses composing: queueing computes the wait, optimization schedules the staff.

Network

Example Primary lens(es) Domain One-line takeaway
Rumor Spread in a School Network Social dynamics Who-connects-to-whom changes the answer: contact structure, not just counts, decides how far a rumor travels and whether a public announcement stops it.

Control

Example Primary lens(es) Domain One-line takeaway
Greenhouse Night Temperature Control Agriculture / building systems Keeping temperature above a setpoint against disturbances is a feedback problem , heater policy follows from the control view, not from prediction alone.

Game theory

Example Primary lens(es) Domain One-line takeaway
Two Cafés Pricing War Game theory Economics / competition A 20% price cut looks profitable when rivals are frozen , game theory reveals the rival's response term that single-actor optimization cannot see.

Causal inference

Example Primary lens(es) Domain One-line takeaway
Marketing Attribution Causal inference Digital marketing Users who see retargeting ads buying 3x more is selection, not effect , backdoor confounding must be adjusted before spending follows.

Information theory

Example Primary lens(es) Domain One-line takeaway
Sensor Placement Information theory Data center monitoring When you cannot measure everything, mutual information tells you which 3 sensor locations carry the most signal about overheating.

Reliability

Example Primary lens(es) Domain One-line takeaway
Delivery Fleet Preventive Maintenance Reliability Logistics Fixed-schedule versus run-to-failure becomes decidable once breakdown timing gets a Weibull hazard and costs go through renewal-reward analysis.

Full texts live in /examples; each follows the standardized 8-phase report structure.